Market needs weak retail data to stay strong

What matters next week is inflation, says Jim Cramer

The stock market’s current run could fall if October stock market prices heat up next week, CNBC’s Jim Cramer warned on Friday.

“If we see weak sales and learn that things are going well in the headwear sector, then the market is likely to remain strong,” he said, adding, said: “The worse the campaign gets, the less damage the Fed should do in advance. They declare victory.”

Stocks rose on Friday following smaller-than-expected consumer price index data released the day before that raised investors’ hopes the Federal Reserve would slow the pace of interest rate hikes. The S&P 500 index ended its best week since June.

Earnings reports from the nation’s largest retailers take place next week, as does trade data for October.

“While I want retail stocks to do well, unfortunately I have to root for weak numbers. [from the October report] and small increases to make that happen,” Cramer said.

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He also looked at the type of income that will be received in the coming week. All income and revenue estimates are from FactSet.

Tuesday: Walmart, Home Depot

Walmart

  • Q3 2023 earnings release at 7 a.m. ET; conference call at 8 a.m. ET
  • Estimated EPS: $1.32
  • Revenue: $147.67 billion

Cramer said the economy is so soft that consumers are starting to shop, which is good news for Walmart.

Home storage

  • Q3 2022 earnings release at 6 a.m. ET; conference call at 9 a.m. ET
  • Estimated EPS: $4.12
  • Revenue: $37.94 billion

Wednesday: Lowe’s, TJX, Target, Nvidia

of Lowe

  • Q3 2022 earnings release at 6 a.m. ET; conference call at 9 a.m. ET
  • Estimated EPS: $3.09
  • Revenue: $23.14 billion

Cramer said Lowe’s and Home Depot could win because of home renovations, but he doesn’t expect either side of the industry to knock him out of the park.

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TJX

  • Q3 2023 earnings release at 9:30 a.m. ET; conference call at 11 a.m. ET
  • Estimated EPS: 80 cents
  • Funding will be provided; $12.30 billion

TJX products are “the best for this season,” he said.

Purpose

  • Q3 2022 earnings release at 6:30 am ET; conference call at 8 a.m. ET
  • Estimated EPS: $2.16
  • Revenue: $26.41 billion

He said he is a believer in Target.

Nvidia

  • Q3 2023 earnings release at 3:20 pm ET; conference call at 5pm ET
  • Estimated EPS: 71 cents
  • Revenue: $5.8 billion

Cramer said he is concerned that semiconductor players are having a short-term hedging session rather than a sustainable one.

Thursday: Kohl’s, Gap, Palo Alto Networks

of Kohl

  • Q3 2022 earnings release at 7 a.m. ET; conference call at 9 a.m. ET
  • Preliminary EPS: 82 cents
  • Initial capital: $4.05 billion
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Space

  • Q3 2022 earnings release at 4:15 pm ET; conference call at 5pm ET
  • Estimated EPS: $0
  • Revenue: $3.81 billion

Cramer said he is not interested in Kohl’s and Gap stocks.

Palo Alto Networks

  • Q1 2023 earnings release at 4:05 pm ET; conference call at 4:30 pm ET
  • Estimated EPS: 69 cents
  • Revenue: $1.55 billion

He said he recommends buying the stock if it drops before the withdrawal.

Friday: Leg cover

  • Q3 2022 earnings release at 6:45 am ET; conference call at 9 a.m. ET
  • Estimated EPS: $1.14
  • Revenue: $2.10 billion

Cramer said he’s betting CEO Mary Dillon has plans to improve Foot Locker’s performance.

Disclaimer: Cramer’s Charitable Trust owns shares of TJX and Nvidia.

Cramer's game plan for the trading week of Nov.  14

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