How voter turnout impacted Georgia Senate runoff results, Warnock’s win

Democrats increased their majority in the Senate on Tuesday night due in part to the Republican candidate’s criticism of the Georgia state.

Turnout was slightly lower in Tuesday’s election than in November’s general election, by about 400,000 voters, but Sen. Raphael G. Warnock (D) doubled his lead over Republican Herschel Walker. The Democrat led by about 95,000 votes as of Wednesday, surpassing his 37,000 votes in the general election.

Both candidates fought to get voters back to the polls just a month after the Nov. 8 general election. Runoff elections, which occur when no candidate receives more than 50 percent, usually have a lower number of votes. About 3.5 million voters showed up for the ballot compared to 3.9 million in the November general election.

Walker seemed unable to muster the votes he needed to overturn Warnock’s gains in the suburbs and suburbs. While Warnock won the suburbs by 190,000 votes in November, he led them by 223,000 in the December runoff.

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Walker, plagued by several scandals during his campaign, had already shown weakness in these areas: The former football star was already underperforming in Gov. Brian Kemp, who is also a Republican, especially in Atlanta’s vote-rich areas in November.

This decline in population, especially in the suburbs of Atlanta, North Georgia, hurt Walker. Forsyth County cast 66,000 votes during Walker’s run in November but only 58,000 in December. In nearby Cherokee County, Walker dropped from 81,000 to 72,000. Although Walker still won both counties, both came close to Warnock this time.

The trend held true in the rural areas Walker controlled: In his run, he won rural areas by 319,000 votes, compared to his 358,000 lead there in November.

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In an ongoing trend since November, counties south of Atlanta have made clear changes to Warnock. For example, swinging Henry County, which has gone Democratic faster than anywhere else in Georgia, went from a Republican stronghold to a Democratic one in just a few years, The Post’s Theodoric Meyer reported Monday. . A 10 percent drop in the overall vote resulted in 3,400 fewer votes for Warnock, but 4,400 fewer for Walker.

Unlike past ridings, educated and wealthier precincts were less likely to vote during that period, according to a Post analysis of precinct-level results. In the quarter of precincts with the smallest share of college-enrolled voters, turnout was down 9.2 percent from November. In areas with the highest percentage of college-educated voters, voter turnout dropped by 10.5 percent.

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Similarly, areas with lower median household incomes experienced an 8.4 percent decrease in voter turnout, while those with higher household incomes saw a 10.9 percent decrease.

The numbers will increase as more votes are counted on Wednesday.

Turnout fell 10 percent, as Georgia’s 2021 Senate vote dropped 9 percent from 4.9 million to 4.5 million, according to Edison Research. However, recent polls show greater enthusiasm for completion: In the 2008 and 1992 state Senate elections, turnout dropped 43 percent between the general and final elections.

Lenny Bronner, Dara Gold and Scott Clement contributed to this report.

Sources: Georgia Secretary of State, poll data from L2, Associated Press poll results.

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